State propositions on Nov. 4 ballots regarding social issues important to conservative voters could cause a spike in the number of Republicans heading to the polls on Election Day, a panel of Cal State Long Beach political science professors said Tuesday.
Professor Jason Whitehead said propositions regarding the constitutionality of gay marriage in states like California and, more importantly, the key state of Florida, could draw large numbers of Republicans to vote on these specific issues, possibly influencing final totals of electoral votes.
Florida holds 27 electoral votes — the third largest share out of the 50 states — and played a crucial role in the 2004 election.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain trailed Sen. Barack Obama by only 3.3 points in Florida, according to a realclearpolitics.com poll average.
But the electoral map seems to be changing a lot since 2004, said professor Lewis Ringel, noting that states like Montana and North Dakota, which have traditionally voted Republican, are now up for grabs.
Professor Ron Schmidt discussed whether the presidential election would be impacted by the Bradley effect. This is a phenomenon first reported by social scientists after the 1982 California gubernatorial election, where black candidate Tom Bradley’s positive poll numbers going into the election were said to be inflated by voters who said they would vote for Bradley only to avoid being seen as racists.
Ultimately, the ended up not voting, or voting for his opponent, George Deukmejian, and Bradley lost.
“There’s a possibility, but no one really knows,” Schmidt said, but went on to add that many of Sen. Obama’s leads in the polls are high enough to still retain his advantage over Sen. McCain, even if there is a Bradley effect.
The CSULB Political Science Student Association coordinated the panel discussion.
Wow! I was the one who asked about the Bradley effect. That’s cool.