With baseball’s midsummer classic in the rearview mirror and the second half about to start I thought – despite the 70 or so games remaining – it would be a good opportunity to preliminarily evaluate the Daily 49er sports staff preseason MLB picks.
AL East
While Toronto surged early before not so gracefully bowing out, this is the three horse race that everyone expected at the beginning of the season. The Red Sox lead the Yankees who lead the Rays.
Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett have been stalwarts at the top of the Red Sox rotation and despite an awful start from David Ortiz, the Sox can score runs in bunches.
The Yankees got a boost from the return of A-Rod and despite lackluster starting pitching they have hit their way into the potential for 90-95 wins at season’s end.
The Rays dug themselves a deep hole in light of high expectations for the first time in club history but a potent line-up and solid arms have them pushing the two-headed Yanks-Sox monster for supremacy in baseball’s über-divison.
All three will make a push for the postseason and these may be the best three teams in the American League when all is said and done but with only two spots maximum for the taking at least one big spender (Boston or New York) or the defending AL pennant-winner loaded with young talent (Tampa Bay) will be singing the October blues.
Verdict: Push for now (It’s not like anyone was taking the Orioles)
AL Central
Out of obscurity the Detroit Tigers have roared to the front of the AL Central race in mid-July after re-capturing some of their 2006 pennant run magic. Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson are a dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation and Brandon Inge of all the big names in that line-up is really driving that offense.
The White Sox starting pitching has been very good lately and the offense can really put up runs in a hurry.
The Twins, led by the M&M boys (Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer) and surprise starters like Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn are once again in the mix. Also important is that Ron Gardenhire’s boys are prone to second-half runs. So neither the White Sox or Twins can be counted out yet.
Verdict: Tough to see a wild card coming out of this division but Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota all still have a legitimate shot at winning.
Swing and a Miss: Tracy – Cleveland
AL West
In what has been a terribly one sided division for much of the post-Y2K era, the Angels have company in 2009. Injuries have depleted the local squad but have not kept them from maintaining a solid record to this point.
The Texas Rangers can flat out hit but even when the bats have faltered their usually shaky pitching staff has been reliable and they are neck-and-neck with the Angels to this point.
The surprising lurker is the Seattle Mariners. They don’t hit much but have a tremendous trio at the top of their rotation with budding superstar Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn.
Verdict: It’s hard to imagine the Angels losing this division with their talent and experience but it’s not the slam dunk it appeared to be in April.
NL East
The defending champion Phillies have slugged their way to the top of a muddled pack of mediocrity in the East division.
Philly can’t pitch as evidenced by their pursuit of Pedro Martinez and Roy Halladay but with the best lineup in baseball they find a way to outscore their opponents.
The Marlins have a good young group and are staying in contention. The Braves have a good pitching staff but are missing the punch offensively.
The Mets have been riddled with injuries and all but amazing. After two devastating collapses in a row they need to get healthy in a hurry and make a strong run to have any chance come September.
Verdict: It’s hard to know how much a 37-year old Pedro will bolster the Phillies rotation but Halladay would. Seems like a one team playoff participant waiting to happen.
NL Central
The central has been as coherent as the Wrigley Field bleachers. Everyone picked the Cubs and while they have shown some signs of life with the return of Aramis Ramirez from the DL they still sit at the .500 mark.
The Brewers are playing good baseball despite losing their top two starters. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are as good as a 3-4 combo as there is in baseball.
Led by a monster first half from Albert Pujols the St. Louis Cardinals lead the central currently. Ryan Ludwick is heating up behind Pujols and that bodes very well for a team that desperately need more weapons with the bat.
The pitching has been good for the Cards as well from Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright to closer Ryan Franklin.
The Astros are lurking and are always a great second half team but Roy Oswalt hasn’t been the same and despite big offensive names like Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee the ‘stros have struggled to score runs.
Verdict: The Cubs need to stay healthy and get Alfonso Soriano straightened out but they should still be the favorites. The Brewers and Cardinals could sneak in if the Cubs continue to scuffle.
NL West
The LA Dodgers have raced out to the best record in baseball. Young guns Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw have anchored the rotation while Jonathan Broxton has been dynamic as the team’s closer.
They lost Manny Ramirez due to a 50-game steroid suspension but new addition Orlando Hudson and young outfielders Andre Either and Matt Kemp have picked up the slack in a big way.
The San Francisco Giants can really pitch – their 13 shutouts are more than twice that of the next team – and reigning NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have dominated the opposition. Young Pablo Sandoval can flat-out hit and has provided the team and the fans with that jolt of youthful exuberance that makes a 162-game grind a lot easier.
The Colorado Rockies are once again in the conversation after a September 2007-esque run that saw them go from sellers to contenders in just a few weeks. New manager Jim Tracy has them thinking “Rocktober again.” The offense is there like it always is but the the pitching from the likes of Jason Marquis, Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook is what is really sustaining their hot streak.
Verdict: The Dodgers have maintained a comfortable lead most of the season. The Giants and Rockies are running first and second in the wild card race.
Swing and a Miss: Daniel and Tracy (Arizona). Brandon Webb’s absence has played a big part in their awful start to the season.
Individual Awards
AL MVP: Joe Mauer (Minnesota) – The Twins catcher missed some time due to injury but leads the league in hitting and has his team in contention.
Best Pick: Tucker – Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay). The Long Beach State product has struggled the last month or so with injuries but still has the numbers to give Mauer a run for this award.
Swing and a Miss: Matt – Josh Hamilton (Texas) Much like his Mets pick this is an injury related misstep but the All Star darling from a year ago can’t stay in the line-up.
AL Cy Young: Zach Greinke (Kansas City), Roy Halladay (Toronto), Josh Beckett (Boston)- Greinke looked like he would run away with this early and Halladay may not finish the season in the American League. This race is definitely wide open.
Best Pick: Matt/Daniel – CC Sabathia (New York) The big man doesn’t have the numbers yet, and pitching in the Bronx Bomb Shelter doesn’t help, but he should get the wins to at least be in the conversation.
Swing and a Miss: Tucker and Tracy – Francisco Liriano
and Scott Kazmir. These two haven’t seen a lot of swings and misses this year and have no chance of winning this award.
AL ROY: Ricky Romero (Toronto)- The Fullerton product has been a pleasant surprise for the Jays and with a better feel for his change up he has been on a great run.
Best Pick: Unanimous – David Price (Tampa Bay) Price has been so-so thus far but has been better lately and could give Romero a run in the second half.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (St. Louis) – The only question to this point is whether or not Pujols could win this unanimously. No NL player has won the Triple Crown since 1937 but the Cardinals first baseman has a shot.
Best Pick: Tracy – Albert Pujols Nice job, can’t believe how bad I missed this one which leads me to…
Swing and a Miss: Tucker – Geovany Soto (Chicago) Talk about a sophomore slump, Soto has been awful so far this year and wont get any votes for this award.
NL Cy Young: Dan Haren (Arizona), Tim Lincecum (San Francisco), Matt Cain (San Francisco) – Haren has the best numbers but Lincecum has a better record and more strikeouts. Cain, like his teammate Lincecum is 10-2. Haren is just 9-5. Best Pick: Unanimous – Johan Santana (New York) Only Santana’s dominance in recent memory makes his first-half look sub-par. His numbers are good except for his record which is the worst among contenders, just 10-7, due to a lack of run support.
NL ROY: Colby Rasmus (St. Louis) – The Cardinals outfielder leads a pretty weak group of NL candidates with 11 home runs.
Swing and a Miss: Unanimous – Cameron Maybin (Florida) One home run and 26 at-bats. Maybin has not been an impact player at the big league level.
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