If the Long Beach State women’s volleyball season were competing on the popular TV game show “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?”, then the 49ers would be down to one lifeline: Phone a Big West Conference school to defeat Cal State Fullerton.
Freshman middle blocker Haleigh Hampton wasn’t being dramatic when she said LBSU’s NCAA tournament hopes were “in jeopardy.”
The ‘Niners cannot afford to lose any of their remaining six Big West Conference matches if they want to win a third straight conference title and earn the automatic qualifier into the 64-team field.
Head coach Brian Gimmillaro, who is used to a higher standard of play after 26 years on the bench, has said in various forms throughout the season that his team has made mistakes that have “never been part of Long Beach State volleyball.”
After all, The Beach has qualified for 23 consecutive NCAA tournaments — one of just four schools with a streak as long — and hasn’t missed the postseason since 1986.
LBSU (17-6, 7-3 Big West) sits in second place between Cal Poly (18-7, 8-4 Big West) and conference-leading CSUF (19-5, 8-2 Big West).
The 49ers should feel fortunate that the Titans defeated the Mustangs to take control of first place Saturday night. A Mustangs victory would have put the ‘Niners two games behind in the win column, and Cal Poly swept the season series against LBSU. Instead, the 49ers are one game behind CSUF for the top spot and hold the tiebreaker.
So, to simplify the ideal scenario, LBSU needs to win the rest of its conference matches and have CSUF lose one of its six remaining Big West matches to create a tie atop the conference. The ‘Niners would win the tiebreaker via their 2-0 head-to-head record this season.
The problem: The Titans have just two matches left against conference foes with winning records.
The best hope will come Friday and Saturday when the ‘Niners and Titans travel to Northern California to face both Pacific (15-8, 7-4 Big West) and UC Davis (16-8, 7-4 Big West) on opposite days.
The Beach does not want to rely on an at-large bid from the NCAA selection committee to keep its streak alive.
The 49ers’ Ratings Percentage Index, which ranks the nation’s teams based on wins, losses and strength of schedule, is at No. 23 but is sure to take a hit — win or lose — when the team hosts the Mizuno Thanksgiving Invitational to close the regular season. LBSU’s three nonconference opponents and the respective RPIs are: Notre Dame (81), Akron (163) and Seattle (216).
In a way, the NCAA tournament starts now for the 49ers — except, it’s win or stay home.
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