With the help of their “home field advantage,” Great Britain may win a total of 60 medals at the 2012 Summer Olympics, according to Ray Stefani, a statistician and professor emeritus at Cal State Long Beach.
Stefani joined the CSULB faculty in 1971 and began making predictions during the 1976 Olympics.
Since then, he has released more than 50 publications based on his knowledge of the Olympics and his statistical work.
As a graduate student at the University of Arizona, Ray Stefani developed a rating system to evaluate the performances of collegiate football teams. While at a game, someone suggested he do the same with the Olympics.
“I started looking at the causes of athletic improvement,” Stefani said.
Stefani said he applies fairly simple math and physics to calculate his predictions.
“I have programs that I have created through Excel,” Stefani said. “I actually take each event and stick it in the program with my formula, then it calculates the improvement.”
Stefani said in the last 12 Olympic Games, the average host nation gathered 13 more medals than four years prior to becoming the host of the Olympics.
In competitions where judges determine the outcome, Stefani said he compares judges to home field referees.
“Judges try to be objective, but the crowd makes noise and it influences their decision,” Stefani said. “It’s human nature.”
Stefani said he only looks at specific sports for his predictions because he cannot always determine how individual athletes will perform in team sports.
He said his predictions are usually correct, but he adds new data to his original formula every time he does new research.
“Whatever the outcome, we hope that comparing these predictions with the actual results will add to the excitement of watching great athletes in action,” Stefani said.